Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 May 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
May 18, 2014
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/0654Z from Region 2056 (N04W91). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
May, 20 May, 21 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
17/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2211Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0218Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21
May).

III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 128
Predicted 19 May-21 May 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 18 May 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/15

SpaceRef staff editor.