Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 408 km/s at 17/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 18/0111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 685 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (19 Mar, 21 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 070
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/30/15