Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 18/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7111 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 069
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 069/068/068
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  010/012-009/012-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40