Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 18/1017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 805 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           18 Mar 070

Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 070/070/070

90 Day Mean        18 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  003/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor Storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/15/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/20