Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/2334Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 727 km/s at 18/2056Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 17/2302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 17/2236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (20 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 40/30/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 30/20/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 115
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 046/118
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 036/053
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 018/025-008/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
