Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 18/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/0748Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 812 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 084
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10