Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 18/1736Z from Region 2371 (N12E39). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 605 km/s at 18/0301Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 18/1445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (21 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 70/70/60
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 80/80/60
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 151
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 145/147/148
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 006/006-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
