Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0331Z from Region 2087 (S20W35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (19 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (20 Jun) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class
flares on day three (21 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
499 km/s at 17/2303Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/1857Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 18/2037Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (19 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 50/40/30
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 111
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05