Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 18/0234Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2158Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 071
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  006/005-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/15
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/40/25