Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/2335Z from Region 2565 (N05W08). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 18/0539Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6229 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 107
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 007/008-010/012-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/30