Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1/Sf flare observed at 18/1744Z from Region 2929 (N07W58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 18/1310Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4360 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 115
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 008/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25