Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 312 km/s at 18/2053Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 398 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 075
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 077/082/085
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 011/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/45/25