Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 18/1130Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 071
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-008/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/40