Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2329Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 18/1724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 071
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  007/008-011/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/45/30