Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 18/1510Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 18/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 18/0310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 079
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  015/020-013/018-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/30
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/40