Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at 18/2058Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1560 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 100
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 013/015-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/40/25