Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 18, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/0552Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 387 km/s at 18/1437Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1142Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           18 Jan 126

Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 125/125/120

90 Day Mean        18 Jan 158

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/012-008/010-008/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    40/30/30

 

SpaceRef staff editor.