Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/0552Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 387 km/s at 18/1437Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1142Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 126
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
