Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 18/1509Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 18/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (21Feb).

III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 071
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/022-015/018-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/25