Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 18/1045Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 077
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  010/012-009/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/25