Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 18/1651Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 18/1409Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/1320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 213
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 220/225/220
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 010/010-014/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
