Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 17/2215Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0548Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7217 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 067
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  007/008-016/020-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/50/50