- Status Report
- Jan 28, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 August 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 18/0659Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 080
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 082/084/085
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 015/018-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/40/25