Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 18, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 17/2233Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/2230Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 082
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 085/080/075
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 009/010-011/014-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.