Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Aug,
20 Aug, 21 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 323 km/s at
18/0609Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0415Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/1457Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 111
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 110/105/110
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 009/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 009/012-014/018-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/10
Minor Storm 15/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 30/30/15