Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 17/0810Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 17/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34944 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 068
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20