Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 344 km/s at 17/0828Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/2331Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (19 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 080
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-014/018-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/40
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/30