Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
17/1948Z from Region 2158 (N15W93). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Sep) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
416 km/s at 16/2120Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2240Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20
Sep).

III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 30/20/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 125
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20