Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 17/1124Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/1307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 321 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 073
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20