Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 16/2144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 56839 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 070
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 070/072/074
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/20