Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 17/0038Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached an average peak of ~775 km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2311Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19133 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 076
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05