Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 17, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/2042Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at 16/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10702 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 117
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.