Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to

17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at

17/1539Z from Region 2192 (S13E68). There are currently 3 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct,

20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

493 km/s at 17/1705Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/2059Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0255Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct)

and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Oct 146

Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 160/170/170

90 Day Mean        17 Oct 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/30/30