Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 17/0158Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1094 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 073
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  008/008-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/20