Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 16/2314Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/2252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2332 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 076
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  008/008-013/018-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/35/40