Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 17/1057Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6414 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 079
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 079/078/080
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 006/005-012/016-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20