Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 17, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/1554Z from Region 2454 (N05E12). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 387 km/s at 16/2335Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 107
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 108/108/106
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 022/030-014/020-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/10
Minor Storm 30/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 70/55/20

SpaceRef staff editor.