Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0907Z from Region 2205 (now around the west limb). There are
currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19
Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 17/0331Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1906Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1903Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5723 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 168
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 170/170/170
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 009/010-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/40
