Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 Nov 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2
event observed at 17/1810Z from Region 1615 (N08W21), a simple Bxo group
with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1613 (S24W19) remained the
most magnetically complex (beta-gamma) of the nine spotted regions on
the visible disk, while Region 1614 (N15W07) remained the largest at 160
millionths. The general downward trend in active region complexity and
size continued today

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for moderate activity through the period
(18-20 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind measured at the ACE
spacecraft began fluctuating between positive and negative sectors
around 17/0655Z, enventually settling into the positive sector after
17/1800Z. About an hour after the fluctuations began, wind speed began
rising from 390 km/s and reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 17/1444Z.
Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 17/0746Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -4.7 nT at 17/0345Z. These observations were consistent with
the arrival of a weak positive coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached 3160
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods possible
for the next three days (18-20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 135
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 20/05/05