Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 16/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).

III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 070
Predicted 18 May-20 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25