Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 17/0046Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 750 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 072
Predicted 18 May-20 May 072/070/068
90 Day Mean 17 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/15/25