Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/0239Z from Region 2066 (S15W12). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
May, 19 May, 20 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 372 km/s at
17/0826Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2112Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2005Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20
May).

III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 134
Predicted 18 May-20 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 17 May 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05