Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0154Z from Region 2965 (N24W44). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 16/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0437Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 103
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 010/010-009/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/35
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/35/50