Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 17/0935Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0703Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 072
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20