Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 17/0805Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2338 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 092
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 014/014-008/008-007/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20