Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0152Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 673 km/s at 17/1045Z. Total IMF reached 35 nT at 17/1336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 17/1324Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0045Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (18 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 40/40/20
Class X 10/10/01
Proton 60/60/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 114
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 071/119
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 021/035-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
