Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0045Z from Region 2002 (S18W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar,
20 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 338 km/s at
17/1426Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 136
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05