Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at a peak level of 937 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 149
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 148/146/142
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15