Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 13/2233Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at14/1917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 077
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 008/010-011/012-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/40
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/60