Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of approximately 340 km/s at 17/0709Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 069
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10