Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 16/2231Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 066
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 010/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/25