Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 16/2231Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 066
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  010/012-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25